CBS Sports is reporting that Big Twelve expansion is dead, either absolutely or regarding the candidates we all know and think about (which means BYU, the likelier Mountain West candidates, and the upper half of the American, including us). While I suppose it's possible that the Big Twelve will end up adding some combination like SMU and New Mexico State, it's unlikely that such programs will be appealing. Given the unavailability of current Power 5 teams, this makes Big Twelve expansion unlikely, and conference realignment as we have been examining it is dead.

But there are many ways for conferences to realign. What happens next is not easily predictable. It may still be nothing. It may be a simple matter of disaffected programs in West Virginia and Oklahoma finding a home together, and nothing else happening.

Or it may be a matter of programs moving in several different directions, with multiple conferences adding programs. This sort of scenario can vary from the Big Twelve losing two teams and then expanding to the complete destruction of that conference, with the Mountain West and American helping to pick up some of its debris.

The Big Twelve, like all power conferences, includes programs that would be undesirable for other power conferences to add. However, while the other four conferences have one or two of such programs, the Big Twelve has several. Iowa State? Kansas State (especially once Bill Snyder retires again)? Baylor? Texas Tech? These are good programs, to be sure, but are they really more desirable than USF, Houston, UConn, or Colorado State? This difference leaves the Big Twelve's members more skittish about conference destruction. Even those schools who are desirable are leery of being left stranded. Why shouldn't Oklahoma look elsewhere for a situation which is more stable and gives them a better chance of making the playoffs?

I would not be surprised if nothing further happens. However, I would also not be surprised if the Big Twelve's decisions against expansion touch off an exodus. Oklahoma would be welcomed in many conferences, especially if they can bring a partner in expansion, like West Virginia. Such a move might leave Texas staring at a conference schedule which they are likely to dominate often, but which is rather weak overall. Would independence not look good to them then? Why not keep their revenue entirely to themselves, while still playing the best teams from the current Big Twelve and others? Not many schools can be truly successful in independence, but Texas is surely one. With Texas, Oklahoma, and one other school gone, are the remaining seven schools a Power 5 worthy conference? Not exactly, and there will be little they could do to upgrade. The best would be to disperse, and upgrade whatever future conferences can find.

We already know of a couple changes which will take effect before 2020. It is quite possible that the college conference landscape will look even more different by then.