Protect Your Unit Week 9 Picks Thread

(DISCLAIMER: This game is for entertainment purposes only. No actual money is being wagered.)

First, I apologize for the certificate errors on the website. I bought a new one, but my web host is being a little slack about installing it. In the meantime, go to http://protectyouru.net rather than HTTPS. Should be fixed soon.

As promised, we will now review the other pre-season futures bets. Those are the ones on conference championships, playoffs, and the Heisman Trophy. Let’s start with that last one:

• Clemson at +250 to have one of its players win Heisman Trophy (E-Dogg42, $15)
• Ohio State at +850 to have one of its players win Heisman Trophy (E-Dogg42, $15)

The Heisman bet didn’t draw a lot of interest, with only one player taking a flyer on it. A win by anyone other than Tua Tagovailoa, Jalen Hurts, or Joe Burrow would be surprising, but OSU’s Justin Fields is still in the running.

• Ohio State at +300 to qualify for 4-team playoff (E-Dogg42, $50)
• Oklahoma at +350 to qualify for 4-team playoff (Defdans, $19)
• Oregon at +800 to qualify for 4-team playoff (BullsOnParade96, $50)

Ohio State and Oklahoma look very likely, and Oregon is still alive if they win out. No one bet on anyone to win the national championship.

• Cincinnati at +450 to win Conference Championship game (BullsOnParade96, $50; Danj725, $20; jrjs, $10)

Three players jumped on this line, and it looks very possible right now, though the Bearcats finish the regular season with Temple and Memphis. They can lose a game, and still win the division, unless it’s to Temple and the Owls win out.

• Georgia at +300 to win Conference Championship game (Gym399, $50)
• Memphis at +300 to win Conference Championship game (jrjs, $10)
• Southern Methodist at +2500 to win Conference Championship game (defdans, $4)
• Utah at +300 to win Conference Championship game (jrjs, $10)

These plays are all very much alive, though Memphis and SMU can’t both win the AAC. Georgia still controls its own destiny to win the SEC East. Utah needs USC to drop a game, though that seems likely.

• Virginia Tech at +1600 to win Conference Championship game (E-dogg42, $10)
• South Florida at +1200 to win Conference Championship game (who cares, it’s not happening)
• Florida State at +1400 to win Conference Championship game (Defdans, $7)

Virginia Tech’s more alive than you’d think; someone has to win that mess of a division, and VT has games remaining against leaders Pitt and UVa. USF is actually more alive than FSU, since they’re still mathematically in it. For all you super-optimists out there, USF can win the division if they win out, and Cincinnati loses one additional game. Florida State needs only one more loss, or one Clemson win, to be eliminated.

So what does this all mean for the standings?

First, let’s review how the accounting works. If you made a futures bet before the season, the cost of the bet was taken out of your bankroll before Week 1. If you bet $100 on futures, you started Week 1 with $900. So if your futures bet comes up a loser, you don’t lose any additional units. The loss has already been taken out of your bankroll. If you win, the cost of the bet and the winnings are added back. So you can gain money, but not lose it.

When is the futures bet paid? Over/under win bets are paid when the team’s regular season ends, because according to the official rules, the team has to play all its games as scheduled to win the bet. Just clinching it, like defdans’ bet on Oregon State to win more than 2 games (they’ve already won 3), doesn’t pay the bet yet. I’m thinking of relaxing this rule for next season.

Other bets are paid when they are clinched, or lost when they are eliminated. Whenever Clemson wins one more game and mathematically eliminates Florida State from the division race, I’ll mark bets on Florida State to win the conference championship game as losers. Your bankroll won’t change, but the “Pending Futures” column in the Standings will decrease. Also, your Dashboard will show the bet result.

Now, can anyone disrupt the race with a big futures payoff? Here are our leading candidates:

BullsOnParade96 could win a whopping $625 if Cincinnati wins the AAC and Oregon makes the four-team playoff. dsidwell31 is a near-lock for $120 on Cincinnati to win 7.5 games. Defdans has a shot at $178.50, if SMU wins the AAC. gym399 wins $150 if Georgia can still win the SEC. Danj725, currently in second, could add $90 on Cincinnati. E-Dogg42 is strong for $75 on Ohio State, and could get more. Several other players have a shot at adding $50-100 fake dollars to the bankroll. This money will get added to your bankroll before bowl season starts, so you’ll have more money to spend on the last “week” of the competition.

Who did everyone pick so far this week?

You know the drill: use this space to talk about your picks, this week’s games, the competition, or anything else!