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Protect Your Unit Week 13 Picks Thread

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It’s hard coming up with things to use for pictures sometimes.
Photo by Michael Gottschalk/Photothek via Getty Images

(DISCLAIMER: This game is for entertainment purposes only. No actual money is being wagered.)

Welcome to Week 13!

In last week’s installment, I promised some number-crunching of parlay success. So let’s dive right into Fig. 1:

DEGENERATE PARLAYS P WIN P LOSS P PCT $ WON $ LOST $ NET
andrewpina 5 0 5 0.0% $0.00 -$250.00 -$250.00
anthonyvito 6 1 5 16.7% $65.00 -$150.00 -$85.00
briank19 10 2 8 20.0% $120.00 -$124.00 -$4.00
bullsonparade96 19 1 18 5.3% $1,350.00 -$2,247.84 -$897.84
camweed12 4 1 3 25.0% $39.00 -$180.00 -$141.00
Danj725 11 3 8 27.3% $2,400.00 -$1,250.00 $1,150.00
Defdans 14 3 11 21.4% $915.88 -$840.00 $75.88
dsidwell31 25 4 21 16.0% $575.00 -$1,110.00 -$535.00
E-Dogg42 97 18 78 18.8% $1,729.40 -$2,176.96 -$447.56
ElliotMoore 3 0 3 0.0% $0.00 -$140.00 -$140.00
Gibbsak 3 0 3 0.0% $0.00 -$150.00 -$150.00
gym399 5 0 5 0.0% $0.00 -$215.00 -$215.00
HerdCountry941 8 3 5 37.5% $600.00 -$150.00 $450.00
jrjs 80 20 60 25.0% $1,751.76 -$968.77 $782.99
Julmisteforheisman 14 0 14 0.0% $0.00 -$464.00 -$464.00
Lrdnorman 26 5 21 19.2% $814.00 -$1,250.00 -$436.00
mcgies852 13 3 10 23.1% $665.00 -$475.00 $190.00
McIntyre2K7 29 8 21 27.6% $2,293.10 -$1,399.07 $894.03
Oak1787 16 1 15 6.3% $52.00 -$380.00 -$328.00
Snafu13 5 2 3 40.0% $258.00 -$250.00 $8.00
speruche 78 23 55 29.5% $5,189.00 -$2,719.66 $2,469.34
ULhothot 16 3 13 18.8% $690.00 -$1,106.74 -$416.74
undercoverbull 35 8 27 22.9% $2,614.00 -$1,212.00 $1,402.00

This is a summary of all parlay bets made, through last week’s games. The first thing that jumps out at me is: speruche is not our most active parlayer, as many assumed. It’s actually E-Dogg42 (97 parlay bets), followed by jrjs (80), and then speruche (78). From there it’s a long drop to undercoverbull (35 parlay bets).

Next, success rates. Leader speruche is at 29.5% - 23 out of 78. That’s excellent, but jrjs (25%) and E-Dogg42 (18.8%) aren’t far behind. There are even less frequent parlayers (is that a word?) that hit at a good rate: McIntyre2K7 (8 for 27, 27.6%); undercoverbull (8 for 35, 22.9%); Defdans (3 for 14, 21.4%); briank19 (2 for 10, 20%), and LrdNorman (5 for 26, 19.2%).

At a glance, 20% seems to be the break-even point. All the players at that level or above broke even (ignoring briank19’s $4 loss), and everyone at that level or below lost money overall. But that doesn’t take into account 2-bet vs 3-bet parlays, bet amounts and differences, and so forth. Which players are consistently hitting, and which ones landed one or two big fish?

USER AVG STDDEV MAX MIN
andrewpina $50.00 $0.00 $50.00 $50.00
anthonyvito $29.17 $9.32 $50.00 $25.00
briank19 $15.05 $4.34 $25.00 $10.00
bullsonparade96 $130.15 $89.21 $300.00 $15.00
camweed12 $48.75 $21.61 $75.00 $15.00
Danj725 $150.00 $42.64 $200.00 $50.00
Defdans $85.16 $64.67 $217.26 $20.00
dsidwell31 $48.80 $26.01 $100.00 $10.00
E-Dogg42 $28.66 $29.05 $200.00 $5.00
ElliotMoore $46.67 $4.71 $50.00 $40.00
Gibbsak $50.00 $0.00 $50.00 $50.00
gym399 $43.00 $9.80 $50.00 $25.00
HerdCountry941 $31.25 $7.40 $40.00 $20.00
jrjs $16.04 $4.98 $23.00 $5.00
Julmisteforheisman $33.14 $12.33 $50.00 $9.00
Lrdnorman $56.35 $35.02 $180.00 $25.00
mcgies852 $46.15 $25.66 $100.00 $25.00
McIntyre2K7 $73.13 $44.18 $170.00 $6.66
Oak1787 $25.00 $9.35 $40.00 $10.00
Snafu13 $76.00 $22.45 $100.00 $50.00
speruche $46.79 $19.95 $125.00 $20.00
ULhothot $81.67 $27.83 $141.74 $45.00
undercoverbull $54.20 $48.10 $240.00 $5.00

This is the Average, Standard Deviation, Maximum, and Minimum bet amounts that people make on parlays. They tell us how much people wager on parlays, and how much they vary it. Danj725 risks the most on parlays, a whopping $150 on average! But we can also see this ranges from $50 to $200. bullsonparade96 is even wilder, ranging from $15 to $300 with an average of $130 and a standard deviation of about $90. (Standard deviation is a measurement of how much a group of statistics differ. The larger, the more different each number is.)

jrjs places the most parlays, but bets the least. E-Dogg42 bets a wide range, from $5 to $200, so his success rate will be tied up in specific plays. speruche is pretty much in the middle.

USER OV/UN SPREAD
andrewpina 0 12
anthonyvito 8 4
briank19 0 24
bullsonparade96 22 31
camweed12 8 3
Danj725 0 33
Defdans 6 29
dsidwell31 26 47
E-Dogg42 118 135
ElliotMoore 2 4
Gibbsak 1 8
gym399 5 10
HerdCountry941 6 18
jrjs 84 146
Julmisteforheisman 1 39
Lrdnorman 13 49
mcgies852 3 33
McIntyre2K7 71 9
Oak1787 29 18
Snafu13 2 11
speruche 144 87
ULhothot 0 41
undercoverbull 18 62

This tells us how many parlay bets are over/under bets, vs. pointspreads. Speruche, McIntyre2K7, and Oak1787 specialize in over/unders; overall, most players do point spread bets. Some do so exclusively.

USER O/U W O/U L PCT
anthonyvito 3 5 37.5%
bullsonparade96 16 6 72.7%
camweed12 3 5 37.5%
Defdans 5 1 83.3%
dsidwell31 12 14 46.2%
E-Dogg42 56 61 47.9%
ElliotMoore 1 1 50.0%
Gibbsak 1 2 33.3%
gym399 3 0 100.0%
HerdCountry941 3 3 50.0%
jrjs 45 39 53.6%
Julmisteforheisman 1 0 100.0%
Lrdnorman 6 7 46.2%
mcgies852 1 2 33.3%
McIntyre2K7 37 32 53.6%
Oak1787 11 17 39.3%
Snafu13 2 0 100.0%
speruche 81 63 56.3%
undercoverbull 11 7 61.1%

speruche is hitting over-unders at an excellent 56.3% rate. That’s more than enough to be profitable. (Standard rule for single bets: 52.4%, because that’s what you need to overcome house edge at -110.) McIntyre2K7, jrjs, and others are also beating the house. But here’s what’s really amazing:

USER PS W PS L PCT
andrewpina 4 8 33.3%
anthonyvito 3 1 75.0%
briank19 11 13 45.8%
bullsonparade96 12 19 38.7%
camweed12 1 2 33.3%
Danj725 22 11 66.7%
Defdans 14 15 48.3%
dsidwell31 21 26 44.7%
E-Dogg42 71 62 53.4%
ElliotMoore 1 3 25.0%
Gibbsak 4 3 57.1%
gym399 5 5 50.0%
HerdCountry941 14 4 77.8%
jrjs 92 53 63.4%
Julmisteforheisman 20 19 51.3%
Lrdnorman 24 24 50.0%
mcgies852 18 14 56.3%
McIntyre2K7 7 2 77.8%
Oak1787 8 9 47.1%
Snafu13 6 4 60.0%
speruche 59 27 68.6%
ULhothot 22 19 53.7%
undercoverbull 33 29 53.2%

As a group, our players are correct an amazing 55.9% of the time on point spread bets within parlays. That actually seems too good to be right, but I ran it a couple times and it’s correct. HerdCountry941 (77.8%), speruche (68.6%), danj725 (66.6%), jrjs (63.4%) mcgies852 (56.3%), E-Dogg42 (53.4%) are all well on the positive side of the ledger.

So there you have it. Picks entered as of about 7:30 AM Friday morning:

User Wager Final Score Units Result Payoff
bullsonparade96 Southern Methodist +3.5 points over Navy; Memphis -14.5 points over South Florida; Tulsa -4.0 points over Houston (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 248.00 TBD 0.00
bullsonparade96 Georgia Tech -1.0 points over North Carolina State Georgia Tech 28-26 1.00 WIN 0.91
bullsonparade96 Tulane +6.0 points over Central Florida TBD 1.00 TBD 0.00
dsidwell31 Akron +31.0 points over Miami (OH); Over 44.0 points in the Akron-Miami (OH) game; Buffalo -7.5 points over Toledo (WIN,LOSS,WIN) Miami (OH) 20-17; Miami (OH) 20-17; Buffalo 49-30 50.00 LOSS -50.00
dsidwell31 Under 66.0 points in the East Carolina-Connecticut game; Illinois +16.0 points over Iowa; Minnesota -12.5 points over Northwestern (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 25.00 TBD 0.00
dsidwell31 Over 39.5 points in the Minnesota-Northwestern game; Over 59.5 points in the Oklahoma State-West Virginia game; Notre Dame -19.0 points over Boston College (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 15.00 TBD 0.00
dsidwell31 Navy -3.5 points over Southern Methodist; Under 68.0 points in the Southern Methodist-Navy game (TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD 15.00 TBD 0.00
dsidwell31 Central Florida -5.5 points over Tulane; Under 71.0 points in the Central Florida-Tulane game (TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD 10.00 TBD 0.00
E-dogg42 Central Florida -5.0 points over Tulane; Oklahoma State -7.0 points over West Virginia; Under 76.5 points in the Oregon State-Washington State game (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 200.00 TBD 0.00
E-dogg42 Under 67.0 points in the East Carolina-Connecticut game; Over 38.0 points in the Minnesota-Northwestern game; Under 70.5 points in the Arkansas-Louisiana State game (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 20.00 TBD 0.00
E-dogg42 Over 53.5 points in the Eastern Michigan-Northern Illinois game; Massachusetts +40.5 points over Brigham Young; Temple +11.0 points over Cincinnati (WIN,TBD,TBD) Eastern Michigan 45-17; TBD; TBD 15.00 TBD 0.00
E-dogg42 Over 53.5 points in the Toledo-Buffalo game; Georgia Tech -1.0 points over North Carolina State; Colorado State +8.0 points over Wyoming (WIN,WIN,TBD) Buffalo 49-30; Georgia Tech 28-26; TBD 15.00 TBD 0.00
ElliotMoore Over 53.5 points in the Eastern Michigan-Northern Illinois game; Under 58.0 points in the Ohio-Bowling Green State game (WIN,LOSS) Eastern Michigan 45-17; Ohio 66-24 60.00 LOSS -60.00
ElliotMoore Over 59.5 points in the Penn State-Ohio State game TBD 50.00 TBD 0.00
ElliotMoore East Carolina -13.0 points over Connecticut TBD 40.00 TBD 0.00
ElliotMoore Marshall -8.0 points over Charlotte TBD 30.00 TBD 0.00
ElliotMoore Massachusetts +40.5 points over Brigham Young TBD 25.00 TBD 0.00
ElliotMoore Over 38.0 points in the Minnesota-Northwestern game TBD 25.00 TBD 0.00
ElliotMoore Under 76.5 points in the Oregon State-Washington State game TBD 20.00 TBD 0.00
GaryStephen Central Florida -225.0 money line to beat Tulane TBD 67.50 TBD 0.00
GaryStephen Under 60.0 points in the Memphis-South Florida game TBD 50.00 TBD 0.00
GaryStephen Under 50.5 points in the San Diego State-Hawaii game TBD 40.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs Under 59.5 points in the Oklahoma State-West Virginia game; Nevada-Las Vegas +6.5 points over San Jose State; Over 70.5 points in the Troy-Louisiana-Lafayette game (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 31.65 TBD 0.00
jrjs Central Florida -5.0 points over Tulane; Over 51.5 points in the Michigan-Indiana game; Houston +4.0 points over Tulsa (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 29.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs Iowa -12.5 points over Illinois; North Texas -4.0 points over Rice; Over 59.5 points in the Houston-Tulsa game (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 29.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs Minnesota -11.0 points over Northwestern; Syracuse +9.0 points over Louisville; Under 46.0 points in the Tennessee-Missouri game (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 29.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs Georgia State -10.0 points over South Alabama; Coastal Carolina +6.5 points over Louisiana-Monroe; Utah State +9.0 points over Boise State (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 29.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs North Texas -4.0 points over Rice; Over 59.5 points in the Houston-Tulsa game; Under 46.0 points in the Tennessee-Missouri game (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 29.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs Iowa -12.5 points over Illinois; Houston +4.0 points over Tulsa; Utah State +9.0 points over Boise State (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 29.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs Georgia State -10.0 points over South Alabama; Over 51.5 points in the Michigan-Indiana game; Syracuse +9.0 points over Louisville (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 29.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs Central Florida -5.0 points over Tulane; Minnesota -11.0 points over Northwestern; Coastal Carolina +6.5 points over Louisiana-Monroe (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 29.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs Wyoming -6.0 points over Colorado State; Troy +14.0 points over Louisiana-Lafayette; Kansas State +3.0 points over Texas Tech (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 29.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs Over 70.0 points in the Troy-Louisiana-Lafayette game; Under 71.5 points in the Arkansas-Louisiana State game; Miami (FL) -18.0 points over Florida International (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 29.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs North Carolina State +2.0 points over Georgia Tech; Over 66.5 points in the Southern Methodist-Navy game; Under 71.5 points in the Arkansas-Louisiana State game (PUSH,TBD,TBD) Georgia Tech 28-26; TBD; TBD 29.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs Over 66.5 points in the Southern Methodist-Navy game; Over 70.0 points in the Troy-Louisiana-Lafayette game; Kansas State +3.0 points over Texas Tech (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 29.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs North Carolina State +2.0 points over Georgia Tech; Wyoming -6.0 points over Colorado State; Miami (FL) -18.0 points over Florida International (PUSH,TBD,TBD) Georgia Tech 28-26; TBD; TBD 29.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs North Carolina State +2.5 points over Georgia Tech; Kansas State +2.5 points over Texas Tech; San Diego State +3.0 points over Hawaii (WIN,TBD,TBD) Georgia Tech 28-26; TBD; TBD 29.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs Coastal Carolina +6.5 points over Louisiana-Monroe; Troy +14.5 points over Louisiana-Lafayette; San Diego State +3.0 points over Hawaii (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 29.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs Syracuse +10.0 points over Louisville; Troy +14.5 points over Louisiana-Lafayette; Under 46.0 points in the Tennessee-Missouri game (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 29.00 TBD 0.00
Julmisteforheisman North Carolina State +2.0 points over Georgia Tech; East Carolina -13.5 points over Connecticut; Navy -3.5 points over Southern Methodist (PUSH,TBD,TBD) Georgia Tech 28-26; TBD; TBD 40.00 TBD 0.00
Julmisteforheisman South Florida +425.0 money line to beat Memphis TBD 40.00 TBD 0.00
Julmisteforheisman Miami (OH) -9900.0 money line to beat Akron Miami (OH) 20-17 20.00 WIN 0.20
McIntyre2K7 Over 45.0 points in the Michigan State-Rutgers game; Over 59.5 points in the Memphis-South Florida game; Louisiana State -44.0 points over Arkansas (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 55.00 TBD 0.00
McIntyre2K7 Kansas +1300.0 money line to beat Iowa State TBD 25.00 TBD 0.00
speruche Over 45.0 points in the Akron-Miami (OH) game; Over 38.0 points in the Minnesota-Northwestern game; Over 41.0 points in the California-Stanford game (LOSS,TBD,TBD) Miami (OH) 20-17; TBD; TBD 100.00 LOSS -100.00
speruche Under 71.0 points in the Central Florida-Tulane game; Under 73.5 points in the Troy-Louisiana-Lafayette game; Under 76.5 points in the Oregon State-Washington State game (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 100.00 TBD 0.00
speruche Over 46.0 points in the Pittsburgh-Virginia Tech game; Over 46.0 points in the Temple-Cincinnati game; Over 45.0 points in the Tennessee-Missouri game (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 40.00 TBD 0.00
speruche Central Florida -5.0 points over Tulane; East Carolina -13.0 points over Connecticut; Cincinnati -10.5 points over Temple (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 30.00 TBD

As always, use this space to discuss your picks, this week’s games, or anything else. If there’s any other statistics you’re interested in, post here I can do a quick query.