(DISCLAIMER: This game is for entertainment purposes only. No actual money is being wagered.)
Welcome to Week 13!
In last week’s installment, I promised some number-crunching of parlay success. So let’s dive right into Fig. 1:
|DEGENERATE||PARLAYS||P WIN||P LOSS||P PCT||$ WON||$ LOST||$ NET|
This is a summary of all parlay bets made, through last week’s games. The first thing that jumps out at me is: speruche is not our most active parlayer, as many assumed. It’s actually E-Dogg42 (97 parlay bets), followed by jrjs (80), and then speruche (78). From there it’s a long drop to undercoverbull (35 parlay bets).
Next, success rates. Leader speruche is at 29.5% - 23 out of 78. That’s excellent, but jrjs (25%) and E-Dogg42 (18.8%) aren’t far behind. There are even less frequent parlayers (is that a word?) that hit at a good rate: McIntyre2K7 (8 for 27, 27.6%); undercoverbull (8 for 35, 22.9%); Defdans (3 for 14, 21.4%); briank19 (2 for 10, 20%), and LrdNorman (5 for 26, 19.2%).
At a glance, 20% seems to be the break-even point. All the players at that level or above broke even (ignoring briank19’s $4 loss), and everyone at that level or below lost money overall. But that doesn’t take into account 2-bet vs 3-bet parlays, bet amounts and differences, and so forth. Which players are consistently hitting, and which ones landed one or two big fish?
This is the Average, Standard Deviation, Maximum, and Minimum bet amounts that people make on parlays. They tell us how much people wager on parlays, and how much they vary it. Danj725 risks the most on parlays, a whopping $150 on average! But we can also see this ranges from $50 to $200. bullsonparade96 is even wilder, ranging from $15 to $300 with an average of $130 and a standard deviation of about $90. (Standard deviation is a measurement of how much a group of statistics differ. The larger, the more different each number is.)
jrjs places the most parlays, but bets the least. E-Dogg42 bets a wide range, from $5 to $200, so his success rate will be tied up in specific plays. speruche is pretty much in the middle.
This tells us how many parlay bets are over/under bets, vs. pointspreads. Speruche, McIntyre2K7, and Oak1787 specialize in over/unders; overall, most players do point spread bets. Some do so exclusively.
|USER||O/U W||O/U L||PCT|
speruche is hitting over-unders at an excellent 56.3% rate. That’s more than enough to be profitable. (Standard rule for single bets: 52.4%, because that’s what you need to overcome house edge at -110.) McIntyre2K7, jrjs, and others are also beating the house. But here’s what’s really amazing:
|USER||PS W||PS L||PCT|
As a group, our players are correct an amazing 55.9% of the time on point spread bets within parlays. That actually seems too good to be right, but I ran it a couple times and it’s correct. HerdCountry941 (77.8%), speruche (68.6%), danj725 (66.6%), jrjs (63.4%) mcgies852 (56.3%), E-Dogg42 (53.4%) are all well on the positive side of the ledger.
So there you have it. Picks entered as of about 7:30 AM Friday morning:
|bullsonparade96||Southern Methodist +3.5 points over Navy; Memphis -14.5 points over South Florida; Tulsa -4.0 points over Houston (TBD,TBD,TBD)||TBD; TBD; TBD||248.00||TBD||0.00|
|bullsonparade96||Georgia Tech -1.0 points over North Carolina State||Georgia Tech 28-26||1.00||WIN||0.91|
|bullsonparade96||Tulane +6.0 points over Central Florida||TBD||1.00||TBD||0.00|
|dsidwell31||Akron +31.0 points over Miami (OH); Over 44.0 points in the Akron-Miami (OH) game; Buffalo -7.5 points over Toledo (WIN,LOSS,WIN)||Miami (OH) 20-17; Miami (OH) 20-17; Buffalo 49-30||50.00||LOSS||-50.00|
|dsidwell31||Under 66.0 points in the East Carolina-Connecticut game; Illinois +16.0 points over Iowa; Minnesota -12.5 points over Northwestern (TBD,TBD,TBD)||TBD; TBD; TBD||25.00||TBD||0.00|
|dsidwell31||Over 39.5 points in the Minnesota-Northwestern game; Over 59.5 points in the Oklahoma State-West Virginia game; Notre Dame -19.0 points over Boston College (TBD,TBD,TBD)||TBD; TBD; TBD||15.00||TBD||0.00|
|dsidwell31||Navy -3.5 points over Southern Methodist; Under 68.0 points in the Southern Methodist-Navy game (TBD,TBD)||TBD; TBD||15.00||TBD||0.00|
|dsidwell31||Central Florida -5.5 points over Tulane; Under 71.0 points in the Central Florida-Tulane game (TBD,TBD)||TBD; TBD||10.00||TBD||0.00|
|E-dogg42||Central Florida -5.0 points over Tulane; Oklahoma State -7.0 points over West Virginia; Under 76.5 points in the Oregon State-Washington State game (TBD,TBD,TBD)||TBD; TBD; TBD||200.00||TBD||0.00|
|E-dogg42||Under 67.0 points in the East Carolina-Connecticut game; Over 38.0 points in the Minnesota-Northwestern game; Under 70.5 points in the Arkansas-Louisiana State game (TBD,TBD,TBD)||TBD; TBD; TBD||20.00||TBD||0.00|
|E-dogg42||Over 53.5 points in the Eastern Michigan-Northern Illinois game; Massachusetts +40.5 points over Brigham Young; Temple +11.0 points over Cincinnati (WIN,TBD,TBD)||Eastern Michigan 45-17; TBD; TBD||15.00||TBD||0.00|
|E-dogg42||Over 53.5 points in the Toledo-Buffalo game; Georgia Tech -1.0 points over North Carolina State; Colorado State +8.0 points over Wyoming (WIN,WIN,TBD)||Buffalo 49-30; Georgia Tech 28-26; TBD||15.00||TBD||0.00|
|ElliotMoore||Over 53.5 points in the Eastern Michigan-Northern Illinois game; Under 58.0 points in the Ohio-Bowling Green State game (WIN,LOSS)||Eastern Michigan 45-17; Ohio 66-24||60.00||LOSS||-60.00|
|ElliotMoore||Over 59.5 points in the Penn State-Ohio State game||TBD||50.00||TBD||0.00|
|ElliotMoore||East Carolina -13.0 points over Connecticut||TBD||40.00||TBD||0.00|
|ElliotMoore||Marshall -8.0 points over Charlotte||TBD||30.00||TBD||0.00|
|ElliotMoore||Massachusetts +40.5 points over Brigham Young||TBD||25.00||TBD||0.00|
|ElliotMoore||Over 38.0 points in the Minnesota-Northwestern game||TBD||25.00||TBD||0.00|
|ElliotMoore||Under 76.5 points in the Oregon State-Washington State game||TBD||20.00||TBD||0.00|
|GaryStephen||Central Florida -225.0 money line to beat Tulane||TBD||67.50||TBD||0.00|
|GaryStephen||Under 60.0 points in the Memphis-South Florida game||TBD||50.00||TBD||0.00|
|GaryStephen||Under 50.5 points in the San Diego State-Hawaii game||TBD||40.00||TBD||0.00|
|jrjs||Under 59.5 points in the Oklahoma State-West Virginia game; Nevada-Las Vegas +6.5 points over San Jose State; Over 70.5 points in the Troy-Louisiana-Lafayette game (TBD,TBD,TBD)||TBD; TBD; TBD||31.65||TBD||0.00|
|jrjs||Central Florida -5.0 points over Tulane; Over 51.5 points in the Michigan-Indiana game; Houston +4.0 points over Tulsa (TBD,TBD,TBD)||TBD; TBD; TBD||29.00||TBD||0.00|
|jrjs||Iowa -12.5 points over Illinois; North Texas -4.0 points over Rice; Over 59.5 points in the Houston-Tulsa game (TBD,TBD,TBD)||TBD; TBD; TBD||29.00||TBD||0.00|
|jrjs||Minnesota -11.0 points over Northwestern; Syracuse +9.0 points over Louisville; Under 46.0 points in the Tennessee-Missouri game (TBD,TBD,TBD)||TBD; TBD; TBD||29.00||TBD||0.00|
|jrjs||Georgia State -10.0 points over South Alabama; Coastal Carolina +6.5 points over Louisiana-Monroe; Utah State +9.0 points over Boise State (TBD,TBD,TBD)||TBD; TBD; TBD||29.00||TBD||0.00|
|jrjs||North Texas -4.0 points over Rice; Over 59.5 points in the Houston-Tulsa game; Under 46.0 points in the Tennessee-Missouri game (TBD,TBD,TBD)||TBD; TBD; TBD||29.00||TBD||0.00|
|jrjs||Iowa -12.5 points over Illinois; Houston +4.0 points over Tulsa; Utah State +9.0 points over Boise State (TBD,TBD,TBD)||TBD; TBD; TBD||29.00||TBD||0.00|
|jrjs||Georgia State -10.0 points over South Alabama; Over 51.5 points in the Michigan-Indiana game; Syracuse +9.0 points over Louisville (TBD,TBD,TBD)||TBD; TBD; TBD||29.00||TBD||0.00|
|jrjs||Central Florida -5.0 points over Tulane; Minnesota -11.0 points over Northwestern; Coastal Carolina +6.5 points over Louisiana-Monroe (TBD,TBD,TBD)||TBD; TBD; TBD||29.00||TBD||0.00|
|jrjs||Wyoming -6.0 points over Colorado State; Troy +14.0 points over Louisiana-Lafayette; Kansas State +3.0 points over Texas Tech (TBD,TBD,TBD)||TBD; TBD; TBD||29.00||TBD||0.00|
|jrjs||Over 70.0 points in the Troy-Louisiana-Lafayette game; Under 71.5 points in the Arkansas-Louisiana State game; Miami (FL) -18.0 points over Florida International (TBD,TBD,TBD)||TBD; TBD; TBD||29.00||TBD||0.00|
|jrjs||North Carolina State +2.0 points over Georgia Tech; Over 66.5 points in the Southern Methodist-Navy game; Under 71.5 points in the Arkansas-Louisiana State game (PUSH,TBD,TBD)||Georgia Tech 28-26; TBD; TBD||29.00||TBD||0.00|
|jrjs||Over 66.5 points in the Southern Methodist-Navy game; Over 70.0 points in the Troy-Louisiana-Lafayette game; Kansas State +3.0 points over Texas Tech (TBD,TBD,TBD)||TBD; TBD; TBD||29.00||TBD||0.00|
|jrjs||North Carolina State +2.0 points over Georgia Tech; Wyoming -6.0 points over Colorado State; Miami (FL) -18.0 points over Florida International (PUSH,TBD,TBD)||Georgia Tech 28-26; TBD; TBD||29.00||TBD||0.00|
|jrjs||North Carolina State +2.5 points over Georgia Tech; Kansas State +2.5 points over Texas Tech; San Diego State +3.0 points over Hawaii (WIN,TBD,TBD)||Georgia Tech 28-26; TBD; TBD||29.00||TBD||0.00|
|jrjs||Coastal Carolina +6.5 points over Louisiana-Monroe; Troy +14.5 points over Louisiana-Lafayette; San Diego State +3.0 points over Hawaii (TBD,TBD,TBD)||TBD; TBD; TBD||29.00||TBD||0.00|
|jrjs||Syracuse +10.0 points over Louisville; Troy +14.5 points over Louisiana-Lafayette; Under 46.0 points in the Tennessee-Missouri game (TBD,TBD,TBD)||TBD; TBD; TBD||29.00||TBD||0.00|
|Julmisteforheisman||North Carolina State +2.0 points over Georgia Tech; East Carolina -13.5 points over Connecticut; Navy -3.5 points over Southern Methodist (PUSH,TBD,TBD)||Georgia Tech 28-26; TBD; TBD||40.00||TBD||0.00|
|Julmisteforheisman||South Florida +425.0 money line to beat Memphis||TBD||40.00||TBD||0.00|
|Julmisteforheisman||Miami (OH) -9900.0 money line to beat Akron||Miami (OH) 20-17||20.00||WIN||0.20|
|McIntyre2K7||Over 45.0 points in the Michigan State-Rutgers game; Over 59.5 points in the Memphis-South Florida game; Louisiana State -44.0 points over Arkansas (TBD,TBD,TBD)||TBD; TBD; TBD||55.00||TBD||0.00|
|McIntyre2K7||Kansas +1300.0 money line to beat Iowa State||TBD||25.00||TBD||0.00|
|speruche||Over 45.0 points in the Akron-Miami (OH) game; Over 38.0 points in the Minnesota-Northwestern game; Over 41.0 points in the California-Stanford game (LOSS,TBD,TBD)||Miami (OH) 20-17; TBD; TBD||100.00||LOSS||-100.00|
|speruche||Under 71.0 points in the Central Florida-Tulane game; Under 73.5 points in the Troy-Louisiana-Lafayette game; Under 76.5 points in the Oregon State-Washington State game (TBD,TBD,TBD)||TBD; TBD; TBD||100.00||TBD||0.00|
|speruche||Over 46.0 points in the Pittsburgh-Virginia Tech game; Over 46.0 points in the Temple-Cincinnati game; Over 45.0 points in the Tennessee-Missouri game (TBD,TBD,TBD)||TBD; TBD; TBD||40.00||TBD||0.00|
|speruche||Central Florida -5.0 points over Tulane; East Carolina -13.0 points over Connecticut; Cincinnati -10.5 points over Temple (TBD,TBD,TBD)||TBD; TBD; TBD||30.00||TBD|
As always, use this space to discuss your picks, this week’s games, or anything else. If there’s any other statistics you’re interested in, post here I can do a quick query.