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Protect Your Unit Week 4 Picks Thread

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An update on the coaching odds!

NCAA Football: Houston at Tulane
Yeah, I can’t believe it either.
Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

(DISCLAIMER: This game is for entertainment purposes only. No actual money is being wagered.)

Last week, I mentioned a pre-season list of odds I received on who would be the first head coach fired in 2019. Well, this week I got an updated list:

  • Willie Taggart, Florida State: +400 (was +1900)
  • Randy Edsall, UConn: +600 (was +800)
  • Charlie Strong, USF: +700 (no odds)
  • Jeremy Pruitt, Tennessee: +800 (no odds)
  • Chris Ash, Rutgers: +1200 (was +1500)
  • Lovie Smith, Illinois: +1400 (was +1900)
  • Brent Brennan, San Jose State: +1800 (was +1200)
  • Steve Addazio, Boston College: +2000 (was +9000)
  • Justin Fuente, Virginia Tech: +2500 (was +3500)
  • Clay Helton, USC: +3200 (was +600)
  • Chip Kelly, UCLA: +4000 (was +15000)
  • Chad Morris, Arkansas: +6000 (was +4000)
  • Gus Malzahn, Auburn: +15000 (was +18000)
  • Kalani Sitake, BYU: +50000 (was +7500)

Yes, Willie Taggart now leads the pack, and our current coach Charlie Strong has made a bold leap to third-most likely to get the axe. And those are the odds to get the axe first, mind you. Chad Morris now intrigues me at +6000; Arkansas has not been good, and isn’t shy about firing coaches. That’s how we got Stan Heath. I still like Kalani Sitake to go, but wins over Tennessee and USC probably bought him enough time to not be first. By the way, USC is between athletic directors, which explains why Helton is suddenly a much longer shot. The house is not above offering sucker bets.

This illustrates how the value of your preseason Futures bets can change. You still keep the same payout, of course, but the odds changing can mean you’re now locked into a better or worse bet than before. For example, BullsOnParade96 took Oregon at +800 to make the 4-team FBS playoff. They’re now +2000, suggesting their actual likelihood of doing so is a lot lower, and making that +800 bet a liability. On the other hand, E-Dogg42’s bet on Ohio State to also make the playoff has moved from +300 to +133. It is now considered more likely to happen than it was before, but he still gets the +300 payout. Other pre-season futures bets increased or decreased in likelihood as events played out.

Oh, and I’m definitely including First Coach Fired in the futures bets next season. It’s too much fun not to.

But, I’m burying the lede on this one. We had our first Thursday Night game this week; Tulane played Houston. I don’t have any words for this, just watch how it ended:

Mind you, Houston once had a 28-7 lead. And this game got a lot of action - over $850, including parlays that included it. And almost all of that fake money was on Houston. The only player to get the game right was Gibbsak, who has it in a further parlay. Anthonyvito and mmmmsnouts got the winner right, but lost on the over-under. Leader BullsOnParade96 dropped $200 on this game, reducing his huge lead to a little over $200 over second-place speruche.

In other news, the Gambletron 2000 is open for business, and players are taking advantage! There are three bets so far this week, and we had nine last week:

speruche Kent State +34.5 points over Auburn LOSS 10.00 -10.00
ElliotMoore Kent State +34.5 points over Auburn LOSS 20.00 -20.00
camweed12 Georgia Southern +16.5 points over Minnesota WIN 50.00 49.02
BrianMartin Murray State +38.5 points over Toledo LOSS 25.00 -25.00
Danj725 Houston +9.5 points over Washington State WIN 50.00 49.02
mmmmsnouts Houston +9.5 points over Washington State WIN 25.00 24.51
anthonyvito Louisville -9.5 points over Western Kentucky WIN 100.00 98.04
E-dogg42 Texas Tech -2.5 points over Arizona LOSS 20.00 -20.00
undercoverbull New Hampshire +9.5 points over Florida International LOSS 10.00 -10.00

The Gambletron offers a randomly selected team, in a game not involving USF/UF/FSU/Central Florida, which you can bet for -102 instead of the usual -110. The game offered changes every two hours or so. This simulates real sports books’ practice of offering lower vigorish (house fees) on certain games, to drive more action on them. As you can see, anthonyvito won $98.04 on a $100 bet instead of the usual $90.91, so there’s an edge in it for you.

Everyone’s picks as of about 8 AM this morning:

anthonyvito Under 58.0 points in the Houston-Tulane game Tulane 38-31 50.00 LOSS -50.00
anthonyvito Tulane -4.5 points over Houston; Under 58.0 points in the Houston-Tulane game (WIN,LOSS) Tulane 38-31; Tulane 38-31 25.00 LOSS -25.00
briank19 Houston +5.5 points over Tulane Tulane 38-31 25.00 LOSS -25.00
briank19 Over 48.5 points in the West Virginia-Kansas game TBD 20.00 TBD 0.00
briank19 Texas Christian -9.5 points over Southern Methodist TBD 15.00 TBD 0.00
briank19 Utah State -3.5 points over San Diego State TBD 15.00 TBD 0.00
briank19 Utah -3.5 points over Southern California TBD 15.00 TBD 0.00
briank19 Indiana -26.5 points over Connecticut TBD 10.00 TBD 0.00
briank19 Alabama-Birmingham -10.0 points over South Alabama TBD 10.00 TBD 0.00
bullsonparade96 Houston +4.5 points over Tulane; Syracuse -6.5 points over Western Michigan; Georgia -13.5 points over Notre Dame (LOSS,TBD,TBD) Tulane 38-31; TBD; TBD 100.00 LOSS -100.00
bullsonparade96 Boise State -8.5 points over Air Force; Houston +4.5 points over Tulane (TBD,LOSS) TBD; Tulane 38-31 50.00 LOSS -50.00
bullsonparade96 Georgia -13.5 points over Notre Dame; Boise State -8.5 points over Air Force; Houston +5.5 points over Tulane (TBD,TBD,LOSS) TBD; TBD; Tulane 38-31 50.00 LOSS -50.00
bullsonparade96 Under 57.0 points in the Southern Methodist-Texas Christian game TBD 5.00 TBD 0.00
camweed12 Boston College -8.0 points over Rutgers TBD 25.00 TBD 0.00
camweed12 Wisconsin -160.0 money line to beat Michigan TBD 25.00 TBD 0.00
camweed12 Tennessee +14.5 points over Florida TBD 25.00 TBD 0.00
camweed12 Over 60.5 points in the Central Florida-Pittsburgh game TBD 25.00 TBD 0.00
camweed12 Under 51.5 points in the Temple-Buffalo game TBD 25.00 TBD 0.00
camweed12 Notre Dame +14.5 points over Georgia TBD 25.00 TBD 0.00
Danj725 Alabama -38.0 points over Southern Mississippi; Indiana -26.5 points over Connecticut; Houston +5.5 points over Tulane (TBD,TBD,LOSS) TBD; TBD; Tulane 38-31 150.00 LOSS -150.00
Danj725 Appalachian State +135.0 money line to beat North Carolina TBD 50.00 TBD 0.00
Danj725 Notre Dame +14.5 points over Georgia TBD 50.00 TBD 0.00
Danj725 Pittsburgh +12.5 points over Central Florida TBD 10.00 TBD 0.00
dsidwell31 Over 49.0 points in the Tennessee-Florida game; Utah -3.5 points over Southern California; Houston +4.5 points over Tulane (TBD,TBD,LOSS) TBD; TBD; Tulane 38-31 50.00 LOSS -50.00
E-dogg42 Wisconsin -3.0 points over Michigan; North Carolina -2.5 points over Appalachian State; Central Florida -11.0 points over Pittsburgh (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 100.00 TBD 0.00
E-dogg42 Wisconsin -3.0 points over Michigan; Texas A&M +3.5 points over Auburn; Texas -5.5 points over Oklahoma State (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 63.42 TBD 0.00
E-dogg42 Houston +4.5 points over Tulane; Florida International +9.5 points over Louisiana Tech (LOSS,TBD) Tulane 38-31; TBD 50.00 LOSS -50.00
E-dogg42 Washington -6.0 points over Brigham Young; Tennessee +14.0 points over Florida (TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD 31.00 TBD 0.00
E-dogg42 Connecticut +28.0 points over Indiana; Central Michigan +30.0 points over Miami (FL); Old Dominion +29.5 points over Virginia (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 25.00 TBD 0.00
E-dogg42 Under 55.5 points in the Air Force-Boise State game TBD 25.00 TBD 0.00
E-dogg42 Houston +180.0 money line to beat Tulane Tulane 38-31 12.00 LOSS -12.00
E-dogg42 Tennessee +500.0 money line to beat Florida TBD 10.00 TBD 0.00
ElliotMoore Houston +4.5 points over Tulane Tulane 38-31 50.00 LOSS -50.00
ElliotMoore Wisconsin -3.5 points over Michigan TBD 40.00 TBD 0.00
ElliotMoore North Carolina -3.5 points over Appalachian State TBD 40.00 TBD 0.00
ElliotMoore Under 74.0 points in the Oklahoma State-Texas game TBD 40.00 TBD 0.00
ElliotMoore North Texas -18.5 points over Texas-San Antonio TBD 30.00 TBD 0.00
ElliotMoore Toledo -9.0 points over Colorado State TBD 30.00 TBD 0.00
GaryStephen Over 57.0 points in the Southern Methodist-Texas Christian game TBD 25.00 TBD 0.00
GaryStephen Kentucky +7.5 points over Mississippi State TBD 25.00 TBD 0.00
GaryStephen Nevada -13.5 points over Texas-El Paso TBD 25.00 TBD 0.00
GaryStephen Over 59.5 points in the UCLA-Washington State game TBD 25.00 TBD 0.00
Gibbsak Texas -5.5 points over Oklahoma State; Kentucky +7.5 points over Mississippi State; Florida -14.5 points over Tennessee (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 50.00 TBD 0.00
Gibbsak Tulane -4.5 points over Houston; Under 58.0 points in the Connecticut-Indiana game; Temple -13.5 points over Buffalo (WIN,TBD,TBD) Tulane 38-31; TBD; TBD 50.00 TBD 0.00
jjlovecub Utah -3.5 points over Southern California TBD 33.00 TBD 0.00
jjlovecub Michigan +3.5 points over Wisconsin TBD 33.00 TBD 0.00
jjlovecub Northwestern +9.5 points over Michigan State TBD 33.00 TBD 0.00
jjlovecub Georgia -14.5 points over Notre Dame TBD 33.00 TBD 0.00
jjlovecub Pittsburgh +12.0 points over Central Florida TBD 11.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs Wyoming +4.5 points over Tulsa TBD 15.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs Oregon -9.5 points over Stanford TBD 15.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs Under 62.5 points in the Bowling Green State-Kent State game TBD 15.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs Temple -13.5 points over Buffalo TBD 15.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs Over 54.5 points in the Ball State-North Carolina State game TBD 15.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs Over 56.0 points in the Oregon-Stanford game TBD 15.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs Over 70.5 points in the Oklahoma State-Texas game TBD 15.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs Under 71.0 points in the Toledo-Colorado State game TBD 15.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs Under 54.0 points in the Temple-Buffalo game TBD 15.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs Washington -5.5 points over Brigham Young TBD 15.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs Central Florida -12.5 points over Pittsburgh TBD 15.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs Central Michigan +30.5 points over Miami (FL) TBD 15.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs Texas A&M +3.5 points over Auburn TBD 15.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs Auburn +160.0 money line to beat Texas A&M TBD 13.64 TBD 0.00
jrjs Over 54.5 points in the Ball State-North Carolina State game; Over 70.5 points in the Oklahoma State-Texas game; Under 71.0 points in the Toledo-Colorado State game (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 10.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs Over 56.0 points in the Oregon-Stanford game; Temple -13.5 points over Buffalo; Under 62.5 points in the Bowling Green State-Kent State game (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 10.00 TBD 0.00
jrjs Under 54.0 points in the Temple-Buffalo game; Washington -5.5 points over Brigham Young (TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD 10.00 TBD 0.00
Julmisteforheisman Wisconsin -3.0 points over Michigan; Central Florida -11.0 points over Pittsburgh; West Virginia -4.0 points over Kansas (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 50.00 TBD 0.00
Julmisteforheisman Connecticut +28.0 points over Indiana TBD 17.50 TBD 0.00
Julmisteforheisman Connecticut +1600.0 money line to beat Indiana TBD 13.50 TBD 0.00
Julmisteforheisman Notre Dame +14.5 points over Georgia TBD 10.00 TBD 0.00
Julmisteforheisman San Diego State +4.5 points over Utah State; Colorado State +9.5 points over Toledo; Notre Dame +14.5 points over Georgia (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 9.00 TBD 0.00
mcgies852 Northwestern +6.5 points over Michigan State; Utah -3.5 points over Southern California; Houston +3.5 points over Tulane (TBD,TBD,LOSS) TBD; TBD; Tulane 38-31 100.00 LOSS -100.00
mcgies852 Houston +3.5 points over Tulane Tulane 38-31 50.00 LOSS -50.00
mcgies852 Utah -3.5 points over Southern California TBD 25.00 TBD 0.00
mcgies852 Northwestern +6.5 points over Michigan State TBD 25.00 TBD 0.00
mmmmsnouts Wisconsin -3.0 points over Michigan TBD 50.00 TBD 0.00
mmmmsnouts Tulane -4.5 points over Houston Tulane 38-31 25.00 WIN 22.73
mmmmsnouts Under 58.0 points in the Houston-Tulane game Tulane 38-31 25.00 LOSS -25.00
mmmmsnouts Old Dominion +29.5 points over Virginia TBD 25.00 TBD 0.00
speruche Over 41.0 points in the California-Mississippi game; Over 38.0 points in the Michigan State-Northwestern game; Over 44.0 points in the Wyoming-Tulsa game (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 50.00 TBD 0.00
speruche Louisiana Tech -7.5 points over Florida International; Central Florida -11.0 points over Pittsburgh; Nebraska -13.0 points over Illinois (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 50.00 TBD 0.00
speruche Kent State -10.5 points over Bowling Green State; Alabama -38.0 points over Southern Mississippi; Over 61.0 points in the Southern Mississippi-Alabama game (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 50.00 TBD 0.00
speruche Over 45.5 points in the Old Dominion-Virginia game; Virginia -28.5 points over Old Dominion; Oregon -10.0 points over Stanford (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 50.00 TBD 0.00
speruche Under 67.0 points in the Toledo-Colorado State game; Under 73.0 points in the Oklahoma State-Texas game; Under 68.5 points in the New Mexico State-New Mexico game (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 30.00 TBD 0.00
speruche Louisiana Tech -7.0 points over Florida International; Boise State -7.0 points over Air Force; Under 56.0 points in the Air Force-Boise State game (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 30.00 TBD 0.00
speruche Vanderbilt +1300.0 money line to beat Louisiana State TBD 5.00 TBD 0.00
speruche Tennessee +500.0 money line to beat Florida TBD 5.00 TBD 0.00
speruche Bowling Green State +335.0 money line to beat Kent State TBD 5.00 TBD 0.00
speruche Southern Methodist +285.0 money line to beat Texas Christian TBD 5.00 TBD 0.00
speruche Central Michigan +4000.0 money line to beat Miami (FL) TBD 5.00 TBD 0.00
speruche South Carolina +290.0 money line to beat Missouri TBD 5.00 TBD 0.00
speruche Illinois +450.0 money line to beat Nebraska TBD 5.00 TBD 0.00
speruche Colorado State +300.0 money line to beat Toledo TBD 5.00 TBD 0.00
ULhothot Mississippi -1.5 points over California; Wisconsin -3.5 points over Michigan; Syracuse -6.5 points over Western Michigan (TBD,TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD; TBD 80.00 TBD 0.00
ULhothot Mississippi State -7.5 points over Kentucky TBD 70.00 TBD 0.00
ULhothot Central Florida -12.5 points over Pittsburgh TBD 5.00 TBD 0.00
undercoverbull Louisville +6.5 points over Florida State; Florida International +9.5 points over Louisiana Tech (TBD,TBD) TBD; TBD 22.00 TBD 0.00

As always, use this space to discuss your selections, lobby for awards, predict fired coaches, talk about the games, and anything else related to this weekend’s college football schedule!