(DISCLAIMER: This contest is for entertainment purposes only. No actual money is being wagered.)
It wasn't a good week for money lines. Of the 50 money line bets placed by our gamers, a whopping 46 of them lost. (And only 7 of those were on USF.) The only money line winners this week were:
|DaGata||Mississippi +120.0 money line to beat Texas A&M||10.00|
|lrdnorman||Duke +150.0 money line to beat Georgia Tech||20.00|
|lrdnorman||Eastern Michigan +485.0 money line to beat Buffalo||5.00|
|tacoman206||Boston College +150.0 money line to beat North Carolina State||10.00|
And that's it. As a group, we lost on USF (money line bet by 7 players); Missouri (4); Cincinnati (3); Arizona, BYU, Florida, Louisville, Miami (Ohio), Middle Tennessee State, Penn State, Syracuse, Texas (2 players each), Army, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana-Monroe, North Carolina, North Carolina State, North Texas, Northern Illinois, Purdue, Texas A&M, TCU, Tulsa, and UCLA. Not counting games where we had players betting both sides, we as a group failed to pick the money line winner in 23 of 25 games. Woof.
Curious, I queried the database to see if this has been the case all season. It hasn't:
|BET TYPE||WON||LOST||PUSHED||NET GAIN/LOSS||NET GAIN/LOSS
As a group, we do lose a lot of money line bets, but they seem to mostly be small-dollar fliers on underdogs, and do little damage to the bottom line.
The main lesson is these numbers is how the vig (house edge) can hurt you. Even though the group is slightly over .500 in picking point spreads and over/unders, we're in the red money-wise, because you have to bet $110 to win $100 on such plays. The break-even point is not 50%, but rather 11/21, or 52.38%.
This week's big winner - actually, only winner - was danj725. He had $100 each on UCF and UMass against the spread, while losing two $25 bets, for a net gain of $131.82. Everyone who played lost at least $10. Collin sat this week out, and gained ground on most of the field by not playing. LeavittTown's three big moneyline bets - USF, TCU, and Louisville - didn't come in, but all three were close to winning. As were many of the team listed in the above group of losing bets. He'll have one more week of the full $250 to bet.
Floyd's Money Team Degenerate Bet of the Week goes to lrdnorman for making a whopping 26 bets. Honorable mention to tacoman206, for making 7 of his 8 bets on non-Power 5 games.
Randolph & Mortimer Spite Bet of the Week goes to dsidwell31, for making the "Willie Taggart's career record" bet ($4.13), the "USF's projected won-lost record" bet ($2.10), and, in a new twist, betting the same amount as the number of over-under points ($58.50 on under 58.5).
National games of note this week are: Notre Dame-Florida State; Oklahoma State-TCU; Texas A&M-Alabama; and Stanford-Arizona State. Our first Tuesday Night game is here: Louisiana-Lafayette is at Texas State in what I'm pretty sure is a Sun Belt game. Could be Conference USA. I have no idea who is in which of those leagues anymore.
In AAC play: what happens when a resistable force meets a movable object? We'll find out when SMU's offense takes on Cincinnati's defense. USF, whose offense has been stuck on 17 points, travels to Tulsa, who hasn't held any opponent to less than 31. Something's got to give! The most important AAC game is on Friday, where Temple -- the only 2-0 team besides East Carolina -- plays at Houston, who just got an important win at Memphis. In the only other AAC game this week, UCF (1-0 in conference) hosts Tulane.