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Protect Your Unit Week 7 Results: We're Not In The Money

Money line wagers are appealing, but there's a reason they offer such good payoffs.

Kyle Rivas

(DISCLAIMER: This contest is for entertainment purposes only. No actual money is being wagered.)

It wasn't a good week for money lines. Of the 50 money line bets placed by our gamers, a whopping 46 of them lost. (And only 7 of those were on USF.) The only money line winners this week were:

DaGata Mississippi +120.0 money line to beat Texas A&M 10.00
lrdnorman Duke +150.0 money line to beat Georgia Tech 20.00
lrdnorman Eastern Michigan +485.0 money line to beat Buffalo 5.00
tacoman206 Boston College +150.0 money line to beat North Carolina State 10.00

And that's it. As a group, we lost on USF (money line bet by 7 players); Missouri (4); Cincinnati (3); Arizona, BYU, Florida, Louisville, Miami (Ohio), Middle Tennessee State, Penn State, Syracuse, Texas (2 players each), Army, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana-Monroe, North Carolina, North Carolina State, North Texas, Northern Illinois, Purdue, Texas A&M, TCU, Tulsa, and UCLA. Not counting games where we had players betting both sides, we as a group failed to pick the money line winner in 23 of 25 games. Woof.

Curious, I queried the database to see if this has been the case all season. It hasn't:

BET TYPE WON LOST PUSHED NET GAIN/LOSS NET GAIN/LOSS
PER BET
Pointspread 293 290 10 -$1102.27 -$1.86
Money Lines 73 218 N/A -$34.76 -$0.12
Over/Under 33 31 0 -$31.39 -$0.49

As a group, we do lose a lot of money line bets, but they seem to mostly be small-dollar fliers on underdogs, and do little damage to the bottom line.

The main lesson is these numbers is how the vig (house edge) can hurt you. Even though the group is slightly over .500 in picking point spreads and over/unders, we're in the red money-wise, because you have to bet $110 to win $100 on such plays. The break-even point is not 50%, but rather 11/21, or 52.38%.

New standings:

collin 1565.19
kendom 1288.44
iwaswrongabouthowell 1235.78
dsidwell31 1204.49
RyanTSmith 1135.85
ucscott 1133.34
jthoma11 1054.23
tacoman206 1048.21
LrdNorman 998.01
ElliotMoore 971.46
JimUSFSig 954.82
DaGata 948.51
shadow68 922.73
danj725 922.05
Snafu13 895.96
JasonLoughren 886.36
andrewpina 803.97
chuckycrater 772.21
diddybull32 765.01
GaryStephen 696.72
zls44 666.66
ULismyhothotsex 567.48
leavitttown 397.11

This week's big winner - actually, only winner - was danj725. He had $100 each on UCF and UMass against the spread, while losing two $25 bets, for a net gain of $131.82. Everyone who played lost at least $10. Collin sat this week out, and gained ground on most of the field by not playing. LeavittTown's three big moneyline bets - USF, TCU, and Louisville - didn't come in, but all three were close to winning. As were many of the team listed in the above group of losing bets. He'll have one more week of the full $250 to bet.

Floyd's Money Team Degenerate Bet of the Week goes to lrdnorman for making a whopping 26 bets. Honorable mention to tacoman206, for making 7 of his 8 bets on non-Power 5 games.

Randolph & Mortimer Spite Bet of the Week goes to dsidwell31, for making the "Willie Taggart's career record" bet ($4.13), the "USF's projected won-lost record" bet ($2.10), and, in a new twist, betting the same amount as the number of over-under points ($58.50 on under 58.5).

National games of note this week are: Notre Dame-Florida State; Oklahoma State-TCU; Texas A&M-Alabama; and Stanford-Arizona State. Our first Tuesday Night game is here: Louisiana-Lafayette is at Texas State in what I'm pretty sure is a Sun Belt game. Could be Conference USA. I have no idea who is in which of those leagues anymore.

In AAC play: what happens when a resistable force meets a movable object? We'll find out when SMU's offense takes on Cincinnati's defense. USF, whose offense has been stuck on 17 points, travels to Tulsa, who hasn't held any opponent to less than 31. Something's got to give!  The most important AAC game is on Friday, where Temple -- the only 2-0 team besides East Carolina -- plays at Houston, who just got an important win at Memphis. In the only other AAC game this week, UCF (1-0 in conference) hosts Tulane.