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(DISCLAIMER: As always, these picks are for entertainment purposes only.)
JAMIE: Well, time to live up to our reputation as two of the biggest degenerates in the Big East blogosphere by advising you on the long-term college football futures market. Let's pick the over/unders on regular-season wins for all of the Big East teams with lines available, along with some of our other favorite bets on the board at Bovada.lv.
COLLIN: In the game of life, women are the rake. But in the game of preseason over/under, the rake is 15% (at least according to Bovada). Therefore just to break even, you must win 53.5% of the following bets at equal units. Let's show you how that's done here. Expert time!
JAMIE: Ha. "Expert."
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Cincinnati - 7.5 wins.
JAMIE: UNDER. They have two FCS teams on the schedule and they should be OK. But I just can't bet on a team for good things when the following statement will appear on their stat sheet at least once this season: "Munchie Legaux hands off to Ralph David Abernathy IV."
COLLIN: OVER. I still believe Brian Kelly is pure evil, and guys that played for him can't help but love playing for someone else now. 4-1 out of conference (2 FCS + Miami Ohio + Toledo, loss to Va. Tech) means you just have to go 4-3, and that should be easy for a very good team.
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Pittsburgh - 7 wins
JAMIE: NO BET. Pittsburgh also has two FCS games, and Dave Wannstedt wasted a lot of talent that's still there and optimized for Paul Chryst's offense. But that's not a fun schedule and not one I would be willing to bet on them going 8-4 with. I think they win exactly 7. Have fun in Birmingham again, you guys!
COLLIN: OVER. Two FCS games, Va. Tech at home, Notre Dame and Buffalo on the road is tricky. But this team that has something to play for... and that something is the fact that Todd Graham is a fucking horrible human being.
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Louisville - 9 wins
JAMIE: NO BET. This was so much easier when I wrote the first draft and the line was at 8.5. I'm sure Louisville will go at least 9-3. But I don't know if they'll go 10-2 and win this bet. Dammit.
COLLIN: OVER. I am never betting against the best coach in the Big East. Is his white wife still a problem there, SEC? Didn't think so. Hustle up and get this guy out of our league because I don't want to play teams this talented and prepared every year. Plus the non-conference of Missouri State, Kentucky, UNC, and the "USF Hopes You Rot In Hell" Exacta: Southern Miss and the FIU SCUMBAGS. Win all those and you only need 4-3 in conference to push and 5-2 to win.
JAMIE: OK, you sold me on this one. OVER for me too. As long as I don't have to give Bovada 15% if they go exactly 9-3.
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South Florida - 7.5 wins
JAMIE: UNDER. I don't think USF will beat Nevada, Louisville, FSU, or Miami. Do you want to bet on them winning the rest of their games? I'd be thrilled if I'm wrong, but this is experience talking. Painful, miserable experience.
COLLIN: UNDER. I am simply hedging with love. I have no idea what to expect. With BJ having more weapons than ever and a run game, and a front four as good as advertised, we could win 10. Or we could continue to just be not-quite-fast-strong-quick-good enough at most positions, and end up 4-8. Trying to predict USF Football has proven to be a mostly fruitless exercise. I won't try it here.
Syracuse - 5.5 winsJAMIE: UNDER. I have to give the Orange a lot of credit for their non-conference schedule. Northwestern, USC, at Minnesota, at Missouri. That's pretty ambitious. But it's going to cost them a bowl game.
COLLIN: OVER. Even with the monster OOC schedule, just have to beat Northwestern, Stony Brook, Temple, and then go 3-6 the rest of the way. That's actually doable. But 8-4 isn't.
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Connecticut, Temple and Rutgers - not on the board
COLLIN: Bovada didn't post a line, but I didn't even notice at first. Much like everyone in Storrs when it comes to football.
JAMIE: I'm glad I don't have to pick Temple. I'm sure I'd get it wrong.
COLLIN: Congrats, Big East, we found our own Vandy/Northwestern. Temple plays Maryland the second week. It's a classic six-pointer as both teams try to keep their heads above the relegation line and avoid the drop to the Atlantic 10 next season.
JAMIE: I would have been interested to see the line for Rutgers. 7.5? 8? I might have gone over that.
COLLIN: How'd that first meeting after Kyle Flood got the job go? "Hey guys, listen, I know you thought Mario Cristobal would be standing here... and I know the administration thought Mario Cristobal would be standing here... and I know I thought Mario Cristobal would be standing here... but we're going to be great this year!!!"
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OTHER BETS JAMIE LOVES
Georgia over 9.5 wins - They get seven home games, they miss Alabama, Arkansas, and LSU completely, Florida is a mess, they get three non-conference tomato cans and Georgia Tech at home... if they don't go at least 10-2, I'll be shocked.
Washington State over 5.5 wins - I count five pretty clear wins, so I only need one out of the last seven to win this bet and I'm pretty sure Mike Leach can find win #6 for us. ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
Florida State average points against, over 10 (includes postseason) - They're going to have a good defense, but 10 points per game for the entire season? That's awfully hard to do, and this bet includes a potential ACC championship game and a high-caliber bowl, which would add two more tough games to the schedule.
Texas Tech under 6.5 wins - I CAN HAZ FREE MONEY?? This one's already in the bank. You can't schedule your way to a bowl in the Big XII when your only near-guaranteed conference win is Kansas. If I was actually going to wager real money on any of these lines, this is the one I would bet on.
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OTHER BETS COLLIN LOVES
Louisville over 8.5 wins - I drink your Charlie Strong Kool-Aid, and it is delicious!
Washington State over 5.5 wins - This Magnificent Bastard has been drinking Coronas and watching tape unencumbered in paradise for over two years. He's ready. It's Mesh time, bitches.
Texas Tech under 6.5 wins - Don't know why. Maybe it's just a feeling. Good thing they have great leadership there in Lubbock. Guns up, Red Raiders. Just point them at your temple and pull the trigger.
Arizona State over 5 wins - Because Todd Graham's pact with the devil is now with a Sun Devil, and his lifeblood is the hatred he generates at his previous employer. Pitt was his biggest job so far, so...
Boise State over 9.5 wins - They're going out with birds in the air extended from each fist. And they don't even play their usual brutal game on the road early in the year since Michigan State without Kirk Cousins doesn't count.
UCF under 8.5 wins - "Men, you're ineligible for the conference title as well as any bowl game this year through absolutely no fault of your own. Your coaching staff and university betrayed you. But here's what I want you to do: Play for me, a total dictator coach that's generally loathed by his players, and try and break your necks for us to win football games. It's about pride in your school, after all!" George O'Leary, Head Coach, University of Central Florida.
Duke over 3.5 wins - Remember, the ACC Wheel of Destiny cuts both ways. And North Carolina Central is a freebie.
Florida over 8 wins - God, that hurt to type. Three freebies (Bowling Green, ULL, Jacksonville State) plus Tennessee and Kentucky means they just gotta go 3-4 the rest of the way. Very doable.