clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Protect Your Unit Week 10 Picks Thread

New, 4 comments

Dunn was under Oveur and Unger was under Dunn.

NCAA Football: Central Michigan at Kansas
Central Michigan and Kansas, two of the most “under” schools in college football.
Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports

(DISCLAIMER: This game is for entertainment purposes only. No actual money is being wagered.)

An over-under or “total” bet is a wager on the total number of points a game, with no regard to who wins or loses, or who scores the points. In this space last week, I speculated that Connecticut scores more “under” results than average.

Curious, I checked this against the PYU database (Come on, Emma!) and found... they are, but not exceptionally so. Since 2013, UConn games have hit the “over” score 23 times, and the “under” score 30 times, meaning they go under 57.7% of the time. In sports gambling, you only have to be right 52.38% of the time to beat the standard house edge of -110. So if you bet the under on UConn every single game, you’d have money in your pocket. This ranks UConn only 30th among the most “under” teams, so perhaps there is an edge for a skillfull fake gambler to exploit.

What are the most “over” and “under” teams in the PYU database?

OVER

Team Over Under Push or Split
Alabama-Birmingham 18 10 1
New Mexico State 31 18 5
Ohio State 38 23 1
Air Force 32 20 4
Texas Tech 29 19 5
Nevada-Las Vegas 30 20 2
Oklahoma 33 23 4
Western Kentucky 33 23 2
Arizona 31 22 3
Tulsa 33 24 1

UAB’s “over” tendencies are from before the program went on hiatus; they’ve gone over in 3 of 7 games this season. Also, this list excludes Coastal Carolina, which has gone “over” in 6 of their 7 games we have over-under lines for. So New Mexico State might be a fairer #1.

UNDER

Team Over Under Push or Split
Central Michigan 18 35 2
Texas 20 37 1
Kansas 18 32 2
Duke 20 35 1
Nevada 19 33 3
Georgia State 17 29 6
Syracuse 20 33 0
Akron 19 31 3
Houston 21 34 1
Cincinnati 21 33 1

Cincinnati and Houston are among the 10 most “under” teams, and Temple is 11th. Navy is 29th, and UConn is 30th. On the “over” end of the scale, Tulsa is 10th, SMU 13th, and East Carolina 20th. Tulane (23-28), USF (24-29), Central Florida (24-28), Memphis (28-27) come down near the middle.

Selections as of 7:30 AM 8 PM Friday:

USER WAGER UNITS
andrewpina Toledo -8.5 points over Northern Illinois 100.00
andrewpina Tulane -5.5 points over Cincinnati 50.00
andrewpina Kentucky -3.5 points over Mississippi 50.00
andrewpina Florida Atlantic -7.5 points over Marshall 50.00
andrewpina Kansas +260.0 money line to beat Baylor 30.00
BrianMartin Penn State -8.0 points over Michigan State 50.00
BrianMartin Syracuse +200.0 money line to beat Florida State 50.00
BrianMartin Central Florida -14.0 points over Southern Methodist 50.00
BrianMartin Oregon +650.0 money line to beat Washington 50.00
BrianMartin East Carolina +1400.0 money line to beat Houston 10.00
carlzee Central Florida -14.0 points over Southern Methodist 70.00
carlzee Miami (FL) +125.0 money line to beat Virginia Tech 50.00
carlzee Over 44.5 points in the South Carolina-Georgia game 40.00
carlzee Over 59.5 points in the Iowa State-West Virginia game 40.00
carlzee Connecticut +23.5 points over South Florida 30.00
carlzee Under 61.0 points in the Iowa State-West Virginia game 27.00
Defdans Maryland -2.5 points over Rutgers 20.00
Defdans Louisiana State +1000.0 money line to beat Alabama 20.00
Defdans Over 50.5 points in the San Diego State-San Jose State game 15.00
dsidwell31 Connecticut +23.5 points over South Florida 50.00
dsidwell31 Clemson -7.5 points over North Carolina State 50.00
EastCoastBull South Florida -23.5 points over Connecticut 100.00
EastCoastBull Houston -24.5 points over East Carolina 50.00
EastCoastBull Southern Methodist +15.5 points over Central Florida 50.00
ElliotMoore Southern Methodist +475.0 money line to beat Central Florida 40.00
ElliotMoore Western Michigan -3.5 points over Central Michigan 40.00
ElliotMoore South Carolina +24.5 points over Georgia 40.00
ElliotMoore Cincinnati +6.0 points over Tulane 40.00
ElliotMoore Virginia Tech -2.0 points over Miami (FL) 40.00
ElliotMoore Wake Forest +450.0 money line to beat Notre Dame 40.00
GaryStephen Connecticut +23.5 points over South Florida 75.00
GaryStephen Memphis -11.5 points over Tulsa 50.00
GaryStephen Kentucky -170.0 money line to beat Mississippi 34.00
GaryStephen Arkansas -23.0 points over Coastal Carolina 30.00
GaryStephen Kansas +9.0 points over Baylor 25.00
GaryStephen California -7.0 points over Oregon State 20.00
jjlovecub East Carolina +24.5 points over Houston 77.00
jjlovecub Indiana +14.5 points over Wisconsin 77.00
jjlovecub Penn State -8.0 points over Michigan State 77.00
mcgies852 Over 75.0 points in the Central Florida-Southern Methodist game 75.00
mcgies852 Over 64.5 points in the South Florida-Connecticut game 75.00
mcgies852 North Carolina State +8.0 points over Clemson 75.00
mcgies852 Florida +3.5 points over Missouri 75.00
McIntyre2K7 Memphis -425.0 money line to beat Tulsa 100.00
McIntyre2K7 Kansas State +145.0 money line to beat Texas Tech 50.00
McIntyre2K7 Western Kentucky +330.0 money line to beat Vanderbilt 30.00
McIntyre2K7 Indiana +400.0 money line to beat Wisconsin 20.00
McIntyre2K7 Rutgers +130.0 money line to beat Maryland 10.00
McIntyre2K7 Texas A&M +525.0 money line to beat Auburn 10.00
McIntyre2K7 Connecticut +23.5 points over South Florida 10.00
McIntyre2K7 Illinois +475.0 money line to beat Purdue 10.00
McIntyre2K7 Massachusetts +28.0 points over Mississippi State 10.00
McIntyre2K7 East Carolina +1400.0 money line to beat Houston 10.00
ucscott Over 78.5 points in the Memphis-Tulsa game 55.00
ucscott Tulane -5.0 points over Cincinnati 55.00
ucscott Central Florida -14.0 points over Southern Methodist 35.00
ucscott Over 64.0 points in the South Florida-Connecticut game 35.00
ucscott Over 72.5 points in the Central Florida-Southern Methodist game 35.00
ucscott Michigan State +295.0 money line to beat Penn State 15.00
ucscott Florida +155.0 money line to beat Missouri 15.00
ucscott Louisiana State +1000.0 money line to beat Alabama 5.00
ULhothot Notre Dame -13.5 points over Wake Forest 110.00
ULhothot Navy -8.0 points over Temple 77.00
ULhothot Northern Illinois +290.0 money line to beat Toledo 13.00

PARLAY: ULHothot, $50, Navy -8, Notre Dame -13.5

Use the space below to talk about this week’s games.