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Protect Your Unit Week 4 Results Thread

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NCAA Football: Louisiana Tech at South Carolina
South Carolina’s game-winning point against Louisiana Tech.
Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

(DISCLAIMER: This game is for entertainment purposes only. No actual money is being wagered.)

In scanning this week’s fake bets for award winners, this one jumped out at me:

Gym399 Louisiana Tech +300.0 money line to beat South Carolina 25.00

Not many people bet on Louisiana Tech in these parts. Especially not to win a big game outright. Which got me thinking: given the, um, history, has anyone in PYU ever bet on Louisiana Tech? I have prior PYU betting data going back to 2013, so I can query for this sort of thing. I made an interesting discovery:

In four-plus seasons, only three bets on Louisiana Tech have ever won. And two of them were $1 spite bets.

Since 2013, there have been 110 money line or point spread bets on Louisiana Tech games. Of those, 99 bet on the other side; 9 of the 12 bets on Louisiana Tech lost; 2 were $1 spite bets by mmmmsnouts to show just how little he thought of LT’s opponents that week (UTEP and Auburn).

But on September 5, 2014, former PYU champion zls44 bet 30 fake dollars on Louisiana Tech +9.5 at Marshall, and won. In four years and one month, that is the only winning bet on Louisiana Tech for more than a dollar. No other school has such a legacy, excluding very new FBS teams that haven’t seen much action yet, like Coastal Carolina.

What are the most bet-against teams in PYU? In terms of net number of bets placed, they are:

  1. Central Florida -126 (102 on, 228 against)
  2. Louisiana Tech -88 (11 on, 99 against)
  3. Florida State -79 (129 on, 203 against)
  4. Alabama -69 (92 on, 161 against)
  5. Mississippi -51 (47 on, 98 against)
  6. Notre Dame -49 (74 on, 123 against)

After that it’s a drop-off to Oklahoma, Georgia, and Rutgers, all around -40.

Overall, this finding makes sense. It’s unsurprising that visitors to a USF blog think very little of Central’s team. Alabama and Notre Dame are known for having a “premium”. Meaning, they are so popular with gamblers that the house has to give more points than they should, to get equal money on each side. So it is often good value to bet against them. Interesting that people go against FSU a lot, when they’re about 50-50 on the Gators, and have less antipathy towards Miami. I have no idea why Mississippi rates so lowly.

But on a percentage basis, Louisiana Tech is the most disliked team in the game by far, outdistancing even C. So for betting on the Bulldogs to beat South Carolina outright, Gym399 wins Floyd’s Money Team Degenerate Bet of the Week.

What are the most popular teams in PYU?

  1. USF +267 (375 on, 108 against)
  2. Navy +94 (141 on, 47 against)
  3. Michigan State +56 (118 on, 62 against)
  4. Tulane +47 (87 on, 40 against)
  5. West Virginia +46 (81 on, 35 against)
  6. Cincinnati +39 (137 on, 98 against)
  7. Houston +34 (120 on, 86 against)
  8. Clemson +34 (105 on, 71 against)
  9. South Carolina +28 (89 on, 61 against)
  10. Wyoming +27 (34 on, 7 against)

It’s not surprising that USF is popular. But we really like Navy, and we liked West Virginia back in the Big East days. Tulane and Wyoming, and the Sakerlina schools are surprising to see on this list.

Standings:

collin 1361.73 -137.27
BrianMartin 1345.69 -59.09
jjlovecub 1321.37 61.36
andrewpina 1286.25 135.40
mcgies852 1254.55 -36.37
ElliotMoore 1196.14 -22.50
gym399 1172.05 -250.00
McIntyre2K7 1153.37 18.21
ucscott 1127.09 2.50
Defdans 1081.91 34.18
dsidwell31 1065.52 37.11
lrdnorman 1052.73 154.66
mmmmsnouts 1036.82 -19.09
CarlZee 1025.34 -227.73
GaryStephen 995.97 -240.00
HerdCountry941 953.33 151.51
ULhothot 950.82 48.00
DaGata 905.20 0
mwllz80 902.27 136.36
Snafu13 898.27 -64.09
eastcoastbull 851.28 -132.55
Gibbsak 762.54 -81.00
bullsonparade96 654.55 0

Collin keeps the lead despite losing 137.27 this week. He had Kentucky to win at +122, which damn near came in for the first time since 1988. BrianMartin and JJLoveCub are close behind.

Big winners this week: lrdnorman (154.66), HerdCountry941 (151.51), mwllz80 (136.36), and AndrewPina (135.40). Having bad weeks were gym399 (-250), myself (-240), and CarlZee (-227.73).

Randolph & Mortimer Spite Bet of the Week goes to BrianMartin for betting against San Diego State, which is looking like USF’s main competitor for the G5 bowl slot.

It’s already Week 5! Actually week 6, since USF and some other teams started a week early. Yet, it’s still September. Matchups of ranked teams include: USC at Washington State on Friday; Clemson-Virginia Tech; and Mississippi State-Auburn. Miami, who has still played only two games, is at unbeaten Duke; winless Florida State is at 4-0 Wake Forest.

In the American, USF is at East Carolina; Houston at Temple; Navy at Tulsa; and Connecticut at SMU. The postponed Memphis-Central Florida game is on for Saturday. C. rolled Maryland 38-10, while Memphis struggled to put away Southern Illinois. In non-conference play, Cincinnati hosts Marshall. Tulane is off.