Protect Your Unit Week 9 Picks Thread

(DISCLAIMER: This contest is for entertainment purposes only. No actual money is being wagered.)

Pictured above is Tim DeRuyter, freshly-fired head coach of Fresno State. He is the fourth head coach to get the axe so far this season. The others were Ron Turner (FIU), Les Miles (LSU), and Darrell Hazell (Purdue).

In our regular team chat, Jamie wondered if there was a dead cat bounce, where teams play better right after firing their head coach. Being true degenerates, we wondered if this insight could help us win at fake gambling. And because the protectyouru.net website has been running for four years, I have a database of games and lines I can use to answer questions like this.

Here is a list of all the mid-season coaching changes going back to 2013, and what happened the game after. (This list includes only coaching changes during the season, not between the regular season and the bowl game.)

It should be noted that not all these coaches were fired. Jerry Kill stepped down for health reasons. Carl Pelini resigned after being accused of drug use, though he later recanted and filed a lawsuit about it. Similarly, Steve Sarkisian was fired for alcohol-related reasons, which Sarkisian disputes. Spurrier and O’Leary retired in the midst of bad seasons. June Jones exited SMU two games into the season, citing personal reasons.

Going back to 2013, teams who replaced their coach during a season are 13-8 against the spread in their first game after. An unremarkable record. But what’s interesting is that there seems to be a sweet spot. Look at the results based on the number of games that had been played before the coach was fired:

• 2 games: 0-1
• 4-6 games: 9-2
• 7-8 games: 3-2
• 9-10 games: 1-3

It appears that like teams who fire their coaches are undervalued their first game afterwards, if the firing is in the first half of the season. After that, not so much. Perhaps there has to be enough season left to hope for a turnaround for there to be any benefit.

Fresno State sacked Tim DeRuyter after a 1-7 start. His former team is +14 against Air Force, a difficult team to figure in its own right. They were the only team to beat Navy, but lost three straight Mountain West games since.

On to this week’s picks:

A lot of people taking Navy this week. Parlay wagers are:

• Bullmartin, 350, Over 63.5 points in the South Florida-Navy game, Over 54.0 points in the Michigan State-Michigan game, Over 60.0 points in the Florida State-Clemson game.
• ULhothot, 235, WVU -3, Louisville -28, Ohio State -22.5
• defdans, 100, Houston -9 over C. Florida FSU +5 Over Clemson, Over 58.5 C. Florida-Houston
• dsidwell31, 100, Houston -9, Michigan -23.5, Michigan - Over 54

Some of our players are swinging for the fences to try and get back into the game, while others are playing more realistically. On last week’s results thread, Jamie said:

This is a very good point. Having players who’ve doubled and tripled their money by midseason, and most of our players in the black, is an amazing rate of success. Seriously, I’d be out of the fake bookmaking business fast at the rate you guys are cashing in. But it’s easy to make aggressive plays when there’s no real money riding on it, and actual disincentives to standing pat. While we try to make our game as realistic as can be, there are some aspects of it that force you to wager in ways you wouldn’t in real life. If I’m down $100 in December, I’d take my slight loss and call it a year, not bet half of my stack on bowl game longshots. So try not to infer too much from the game’s results, mmmkay?

Use the comments thread to talk about this week’s games, explain your picks, and lobby for awards. We are so far lacking in degenerate and spite bets this week (I made a couple, but I don’t like to give awards to myself) so this is your week to win the recognition you crave.