This is part two of two parts on current conference realignment scenarios. Part one, on the Power 5 conferences, was posted at Hammer and Rails here.

I keep seeing ideas, rumors, scenarios, fantasies, and whatnot posted on the Internet about what conference moves will be made next. Most of them are pretty unrealistic -- they either reflect a misunderstanding of what a source is saying, or are just what some fan somewhere would like to see. Therefore I want to set out some principles of how conference realignment works, and then show how they apply to the various conferences. In this post I will discuss the Group of 5 conferences.

General Principles:

1. Money comes first, but it isn't the only factor. Individual conferences and schools may have their own criteria for who may join.

2. Conference affiliation decisions are not made centrally. The details vary, but basically they are made by individual conferences and schools. No one is going to add some random school because that would create four conferences of 16 teams each. If you want to explore a scenario, you have to show how each individual move makes sense considered separately.

3. Conferences prefer schools like the ones they have. A conference with a bunch of large, research-oriented schools is not likely to add a small liberal arts college.

4. Conferences prefer schools that are contiguous to their current footprint, though this is not necessary for an expansion.

5. No one wants to be the first to test a grant of rights.

6. Conferences no doubt have portfolios of dozens of schools to consider as expansion candidates. Having a portfolio does not mean that the conference is actively considering said schools.

Now, how do these apply to the individual conferences?

1. Mountain West Conference

The MWC may get raided by the Big XII, though I consider it unlikely. If two schools leave, I would expect them to continue at ten schools. If only one school leaves, I would expect them to offer membership to BYU, who probably rejects it, and then to New Mexico State.

Should the Big XII disintegrate, some of the schools left behind in that conference would likely be added, such as Baylor, Iowa State, or Kansas State.

2. Mid American Conference

The MAC loses UMass this upcoming season, leaving it with twelve teams. There are few natural expansion candidates, unless they dip into the Missouri Valley, but it is unlikely that anyone will raid a MAC team. There has been talk of Northern Illinois being a candidate for the Big XII, but Northern Illinois brings little to the table beyond some football success. Having lived in Chicago, NIU gets a couple of column inches on page 5 of the sports. No one cares much in the city beyond vague well wishes.

3. The Sun Belt Conference

In 2017 the Sun Belt will lose Idaho and New Mexico State, but add Coastal Carolina, thus leaving them at ten teams. With conference championship deregulation, they would be able to have a conference championship game if they chose, and would gain little by expanding to twelve; if they do so, they would bring up two schools from FCS.

Financial issues in Louisiana, however, may play havoc with the Louisiana schools. Should Louisiana-Lafayette and Louisiana-Monroe drop out of FBS due to these issues, expect to see the Sun Belt look at UMass, New Mexico State, and FCS teams to get back to ten, but eight would be a possibility.

Should the scenario outlined below happen, whereby Southern Miss goes to the AAC, expect Conference USA to consider a Sun Belt school. In that case, the Sun Belt would look for one of the above schools as a replacement, with an FCS team as the likely choice.

4. American Athletic Conference

The AAC is the conference most likely to be raided by a Power 5 conference. However, it is far from clear that any of its current teams brings enough to the table as yet to be a net plus to any Power 5 conference. The best bet for Power 5 status for AAC schools is to bring the AAC up to that status. This would be a difficult task (just ask the Mountain West), but seems more likely than joining an existing Power 5 conference.

Should one team be raided, look for Southern Miss as the best addition. Should two be raided, expect the AAC to stand pat at ten schools.

5. Conference USA
CUSA will be only as stable as the AAC. Should there be any loss, it is likely to be Southern Miss. CUSA could add UMass to replace them, or raid the Sun Belt, with Georgia Southern as a likely choice.

Generally, among these three, there has been a hierarchy: AAC/Big East raids Conference USA; Conference USA raids the Sun Belt; the Sun Belt raids FCS.

6. Army

Army could join any of the AAC, CUSA, or Sun Belt it wanted to. It does not want to. Expect them to remain independent.

7. Massachusetts

UMass is leaving the MAC, and will be an independent until they can find a new home. The problem for them is that there is no logical home for them. They are not at the level of the AAC, and there is no other conference with a footprint close to them. I expect they will remain an FBS independent for a while, and talk to any conference that has an open spot, but unless their football program develops, I do not see them joining any. They would do well to consider returning to FCS.

8. New Mexico State
NMSU will be an independent in a few years. They, too, may wait around for an invite from the MWC or the Sun Belt, if they are needed, but the best bet is for them to drop down to FCS, probably to the Big Sky Conference.

9. Idaho
Idaho is the least desirable team in FBS and will likely have to swallow their pride and drop down to FCS, joining the Big Sky Conference.